Rain or shine, Phillip Island is certain to lay on some top racing when the MotoGP circus rolls around
For the MotoGP circus, it’s the furthest stop-over in the middle of three weeks of long-haul Pacific rim travel. For the riders, it’s a favourite circuit: challenging, but hugely enjoyable. For the championship, it’s a part of an 18-piece puzzle that’s nearing completion.
But for Australian racing fans, it’s got to be the highlight of the year.
And quite a year at that.
When MotoGP left Europe after the Aragon GP, there were still five riders with a strong mathematical chance of winning the 69th World Championship.
There’s a chance that the title will be decided here beside the seaside, as it has been five times since the inaugural race at the Island in 1989. (1996 Doohan, 2001 and 2004 Rossi, 2011 Stoner and 2012 Lorenzo).
But with two races to go – in Malaysia and Valencia – and therefore 50 points on the table, there’s a bigger chance that the champ won’t be crowned here. For a second consecutive vintage year, the battle for max points will be as frantic and breathless as at every race so far.
It’s not one to be missed.
The Story so Far
Nothing should have surprised anyone in 2017, because so many things were surprising. From the moment class rookie Johann Zarco galloped away in the lead of the opening round at Qatar, we were ready to expect the unexpected.
To an extent, the season delivered. But by the time we left Europe 14 races later, some home truths had been re-established.
Most particularly, anyone who hopes to defeat defending triple champion Marc Marquez is going to need more on his side than just horsepower and skill. Now 24 and riding the risk in trade-mark swashbuckling style, the Spaniard and his team have come to terms with the quirks of the revised reverse-crank Repsol Honda enough to get reliability and results.
Marquez won only two of the first nine races, and crashed out of two more. He won three of the following five that closed out the European season, finished second at one other, and his only no-score came when his RC213V suffered a rare smoky blow-up at Silverstone.
Marquez, Australian MotoGP 2017
Without doubt, he’s on a roll.
Everyone expected that his stiffest opposition would come from his pre-teen rival, Maverick Viñales, who gave Suzuki its first dry-weather win since 2000, then switched to the much more competitive Movistar Yamaha. Vinales obliged by winning the first two races. Then he mystified himself by crashing out of the third. This year’s Yamaha has somehow lost its friendly adaptability and become balanced on a fine edge. Nor did the M1 like his aggressive riding style.
Maverick won only one other race (Le Mans) and other podiums have been interspersed with indifferent results. He left Europe third overall, 28 points adrift and needing a change in fortune that may come with the latest chassis change.
Marquez’s strongest competition has come from a quite different source. In nine years with Honda, Yamaha and lately Ducati, Andrea Dovizioso won only two races, both in the wet. Now, aged 31, came a late flowering for the former 125 champion. He won two in
a row in Italy and Catalunya, then two more in a row in Austria and England, all without abandoning his steady, careful style. He scored points everywhere except Argentina, where he was knocked off by a headstrong Aleix Espargaro on the Aprilia.
Dovi was equal on points before the last European race, but dropped behind by 16 after finishing only seventh at Aragon. But it’s not over yet for the rider who provides the conservative counterpoint to Marquez’s reckless abandon.
Rossi has been marvellous: the ageless superstar redoubling his legend by coming back after barely three weeks from a double leg-break, as quick as ever. But he too has suffered from this year’s tricky factory Yamaha, has won only once, and dropped to fifth overall behind Dani Pedrosa (Repsol Honda) at Aragon.
Pedrosa has a win and seven podiums, but has been let down by this year’s Michelin tyres – or at least by his problems getting them up to temperature. He’s too light and can’t work them hard enough, so when it’s cold he’s really struggled.
These six have won every race so far – the variety of 2016’s record eight winners has not quite repeated. At the same time, the overall competition is closer, with battles all the way down the points.
Fast, flowing tracks like Phillip Island bring out the best in motorcycle racing. That’s something special, in 2017.
Pedrosa, Australian MotoGP 2017
TOP-STEP TIGERS
Marc Márquez (Repsol Honda)
Marquez has a chequered past at Phillip Island, winning on a 125 in 2010 and in MotoGP in 2015. In Moto2 in 2011 an “irresponsible” free-practice crash put him to the back of the grid, and he still finished third. Disqualified in 2013, he crashed out of the lead in 2014 and again last year. Will probably win. Or crash.
Andrea Dovizioso (Ducati)
Dovi is in the form of his life. So too the big red Duke. Speed down the straight is its strong suit and so is braking. And he’s good in the wet, which PI often is. He’s clever and cautious, plays the percentages, with an eye on the main prize, the title. His result will take everything into account, not just a quick chance of glory.
Maverick Vinales (Movistar Yamaha)
Pre-season favourite Maverick has had a couple of tricky times on an M1 that didn’t quite suit his style. Couldn’t explain why he’d crashed in Texas and Assen. But Yamaha gave him the 2018 chassis at Silverstone, and he was straight back on the podium.
Valentino Rossi (Movistar Yamaha)
Valentino just can’t stop himself. Broken leg and all, he missed work for just 21 days. And he’s knocking on for 40. Unbeatable at Phillip Island from 2001 to 2005, and again in 2014. You want to rule him out, just because he’s older, richer and has nothing left to prove? No. He’s unique. He’s Valentino.
PODIUM PIRATES
Jorge Lorenzo (Ducati)
It’s taken Jorge longer to – as he puts it – “learn a new language” after switching from a friendly Yamaha to the darkly different Duke. But he’s been putting it on the front row, leading races and was a close second at Aragon. Phillip Island might be his breakthrough. He’s won here before.
Danilo Petrucci (Pramac Ducati)
He’s got the same bike as the factory guys, he’s hungry, and he’s got nothing to lose. Petrucci shines when the going gets tough – cold, wet, slippery, he’s fast. That happens often enough at Phillip Island. He’s keen to take his turn on the top step after two second places.
Cal Crutchlow (LCR Honda)
Who won last year? CC. Did anyone expect that? Cal’s a tough, gritty racer who comes up with all sorts of surprises. He’s also a loyal supporter of Honda, and therefore Marquez. But if Marc goes gravel-bashing, there’ll be nothing to hold him back except his Honda’s bad temper.
DARKEST HORSE
Johann Zarco (Monster Yamaha)
The Black Beauty tip goes to the thoughtful and talkative Frenchman who last year became the first to successfully defend a Moto2 title. Zarco has consistently failed to perform like a premier-class rookie. Led his first MotoGP race in Qatar and hit the rostrum at home in France.
Zarco, Dutch MotoGP 2017
YOU NEVER KNOW
Aleix Espargaro (Aprilia)
Headstrong charger, let down by his bike this year as often as by his own folly. But the Aprilia has a hidden strength: it looks after its tyres and is fast at the end of races. Quirks of Phillip Island might help it to a good top ten. If Aleix lets it get that far.
Aleix Espargaro, Japanese MotoGP 2017