This year, next year, sometime… never. The ‘Toprak to MotoGP’ story is almost as old as the dinosaurs. Unlike them, however, it won’t become extinct.
There’s always been one or other stumbling block. Not least his and his manager Kenan Sofuoglu’s insistence he would only move straight into a full factory team.
This demand considerably reduced his chances, although it has happened before. Just twice. Scott Russell replaced Kevin Schwantz at Suzuki mid-1995 – in at the deep end, with two podiums in a year and half; Colin Edwards was recruited by Aprilia to ride the fast but flawed three-cylinder 990 Cube in 2003. The bike didn’t do the Texan any favours. Least of all when it caught fire and he leapt off at high speed. He moved on to Honda, then some strong years with Yamaha.
Earlier this season, I was convinced that the endless shilly-shallying combined with the advancing years meant he had left it too late. Now the shifting sands in MotoGP, and a whole new set of rumours, make that less certain.
There are several scenarios doing the rounds. The least probable has current employers BMW joining MotoGP at last, after resisting Dorna’s treaties for many years.
Yamaha, for whom he won his first Superbike title, is another candidate. After all, the new Pramac Yamaha team this year has ‘equal status’ to the factory team.
Then there’s Honda, who like Yamaha is making progress on the MotoGP comeback trail. One possibility would be a year on their Superbike – a chance to win the title on three different makes, then into the factory team on the all-new 850 for 2027.
Some factors lend plausibility.
Firstly, the speed of two out of three rookies this year suggests that the dumb-down regs that have made MotoGP bikes so similar have also made them easier to ride. Moto2 champ Ai Ogura has astonished from his first race, when he finished fourth. Fermin Aldeguer has been even more impressive – strong top tens in the last two races followed by Sprint and main-race podiums at Le Mans.
Secondly, the Honda revival. Progress proves the sleeping giant is getting serious again. Honda also knows how to make bikes for new regulations… the 990cc V5 RC211V that dominated the early four-stroke years was a masterpiece.
Most crucially, tyres. After 21 years in WorldSBK, Pirelli take over from Michelin in MotoGP in 2027.
There are two aspects. Firstly, as Pirelli director Giorgio Barbier explained, with ride-height devices banned and aero limited, lap times of MotoGP and Superbike will be closer, and the tyres that work for the latter shouldn’t be a million miles away for MotoGP.
Secondly, how it relates to Razgatlioglu. Toprak has career-long experience with Pirellis, and that could count for a lot, while the rest of MotoGP riders will have to adapt.
So is Toprak a shoo-in for MotoGP success?
There should be nothing to prevent a rider who is good on a Superbike from being good on a MotoGP bike. Racing is racing, after all. But the margins at the top are close, and small nuances make a big difference. Perhaps that is why the precedents are not particularly encouraging. Carl Fogarty was a Superbike giant, but he never got a real MotoGP opportunity.
Double WorldSBK champ Colin Edwards was narrowly denied a single Assen win with a last-corner tumble. He wasn’t far from the very top, but at 29 when he switched, possibly past his best.
Scott Russell made two podiums; Ben Spies one race win. Both respectable, but both one-time Superbike champions were some way short of the big cigar.
Moving from the grand prix paddock to Superbikes has brought championships for many riders, including John Kocinski, Max Biaggi, Carlos Checa and Alvaro Bautista. It’s never worked the other way round.
Could Toprak, 29 in 2027, be different?
