Who’ll raise a glass to victory as MotoGP’s finest line up for one last Island showdown?
The racing hasn’t always been top tier. But the 2026 MotoGP title fight has been nothing short of compelling since the series kicked off in late February. Jorge Martin, Marc Marquez and Marco Bezzecchi all harbour realistic goals of winning out in the 1000cc swansong. With just five rounds remaining, the final bow at Phillip Island will be critical in deciding which way the championship trophy goes.
Much of the excitement is a result of Marc Marquez’s latest heroic injury return. A crash in France knocked the reigning champion for six and gave him time to address a troublesome nerve that had left his right arm numb in the opening exchanges of the year. After falling 102 points in arrears of Bezzecchi, a string of miraculous rides has him back in the thick of the title picture.
Another factor is the emergence of Aprilia as a genuine contender. The Noale factory has had Ducati on the ropes on numerous occasions through the year. Leaving Europe, the two Italian manufacturers had seven wins apiece and could barely be separated in the constructors’ standings. Ai Ogura and Raul Fernandez have also showcased just how brilliant the 2026 RS-GP is.
There’ll be the added motivation of winning at Phillip Island in its final year. As well as producing old-school thrillers in 1989 and 1990, the 12-turn track can boast numerous recent classics, too – Alex Rins leading home an eight-rider fight in 2022, and Johann Zarco’s maiden MotoGP victory among them. As AMCN explores, there are as many as eight riders that can be expected to contest the podium this time around.
1 – Marc Marquez
If the figure that strolled to his ninth world title in 2025 was Marquez 2.0, 2026 sees yet another version of the all-time great. Further diminished by the serious shoulder injury sustained in Indonesia last year, the 33-year-old has since been hamstrung by a lack of power in the right-hand side of his upper body.
Not helped by Aprilia’s continued rise and Ducati standing still, the Catalan has occasionally looked vulnerable in ways that would have seemed unimaginable this time a year ago.
Still, he’s in the thick of the championship fight and has produced a number of rides across the season – think the Thailand Sprint and Czech Grand Prix – when that ruthless competitive edge has carried him over the line. And all when “he’s riding with one-and-a-half arms”, according to surgeon Samuel Antuna.
Luckily for him, Phillip Island goes left. A lot. And the reigning champ has scored some of his finest wins here, with victories in 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2024 all standing out. He barely broke into a sweat winning at Balaton Park, the Sachsenring and Aragon, previous anti-clockwise layouts, this term. In what is a complicated overseas run, the No.93 knows he must attack here.
2 – Jorge Martin
It’s worth taking stock of where Martin was back in March; 27 fractures and five surgeries in 2025 limited him to just seven grand prix appearances. The final operation on a troublesome right wrist kept him out of the Sepang test. Oh, and he would be leaving Aprilia at the end of 2026.
All ingredients for another troubled campaign, surely. Yet it’s a credit to the 28-year-old that he stands as Marquez’s chief challenger. No question, Martin hasn’t been the fastest rider this year. One Grand Prix win (and three Sprints) before the flyaways attests to that. But his intelligence and consistency have won out.
Plus, there have been recent signs that we’re starting to see the explosive best of ‘The Martinator’. A midseason lull came after losing confidence in a crash-laden Barcelona weekend and too much set-up tinkering. But he was electric at Misano before arm pump took hold, and was the pick of the Aprilias in Austria. Could he be peaking at just the right time?
He has form at Phillip Island. Having scored a maiden Moto2 podium here in 2019, he should have won the 2023 MotoGP race at a canter but for a needless tyre gamble. He made amends of sorts in 2024, winning the Sprint. Expect a big challenge here.
3 – Marco Bezzecchi
How to judge Bezzecchi’s 2026? As a sign of his amazing speed as he notched up four poles and four wins? Or is it his inability to handle the big moments? For every dominant win, there’s been a first-lap crash or a swing at a marshal.
Either way, the 28-year-old has shown an adeptness at responding to crushing disappointment. Despite riding with a crocked left knee through the season’s second half, he has remained in the championship fight and immediately got back on the horse at Silverstone after repeat falls. He managed the same in Austria, just a week after falling from the lead at Misano.
While his consistency has been called into question, Bezzecchi and Aprilia’s mighty RS-GP remain a weapon for most layouts. Only at Barcelona has he been found wanting in terms of speed.
He’s always been an Island disciple. Bezzecchi was fastest at the end of his first day here on a MotoGP machine in 2022, a year in which he finished just off the podium. Only a penalty denied him a double victory in 2025. There’s little reason to think he won’t be challenging at the front again this year.
4 – Pedro Acosta
It could be argued Acosta has been MotoGP’s finest performer in 2026, a still-recovering Marquez aside. Results might not say as much. But compare his win, six podiums and fourth in the championship to the other KTM runners, who sat 12th, 13th and 22nd overall when leaving Europe.
Also factor in how Acosta had to deal with a series of reliability issues midseason. Despite mechanical shortcomings, the double world champ has remained fast, motivated and consistent, demanding his bosses match his ambition during the summer break.
Tweaks to his riding style to extract the maximum from his package resulted in a series of outstanding rides from Silverstone on. Even teammate Brad Binder acknowledged Acosta has been keeping the KTM ship afloat. “He’s been carrying the team and making things look a hell of a lot better than they are,” said the South African. Not bad for a rider still in his early 20s.
Acosta’s results on the Island have been mixed. After scoring second on his debut here in 2022, crashes impacted results in the following two seasons. A Sprint podium last year hinted he finally cracked the layout on a MotoGP machine.
5 – Ai Ogura
Without question the surprise of 2026. Few gave Ogura much hope at the beginning of the year – only Alex Rins was ranked lower in the bookies’ odds – after an injury-afflicted rookie campaign in 2025.
But the Japanese rider has become one of MotoGP’s leading names over recent months. His languid movements and fierce braking ability have melded seamlessly with Aprilia’s 26 RS-GP. After breaking his premier-class podium duck in France, he scored a maiden success at Assen. Previous weaknesses, like starts and qualifying, were also remedied.
Only a left thumb injury, sustained in late August, slowed his championship threat. Still, the Ogura that returned in Austria was the same as before: sharp, aggressive and devastatingly fast on used tyres.
Ogura has never clicked with Phillip Island, scoring a best of fourth place in his Moto2 title year. He previously complained Dunlop’s Moto2 and Moto3 tyres never gave him the edge grip so necessary around the long, open curves. But that shouldn’t be a problem aboard his current machine with sticky Michelins. At the very least, Japan’s first MotoGP victor in 22 years should be a podium threat.
THE OUTSIDERS
1 – Alex Marquez
It was always going to be difficult to repeat the 2025 season for the younger Marquez sibling. For a start, he’s on up-to-date Ducati kit, which required developing in the season’s opening months. Plus, the Desmosedici is no longer the MotoGP reference.
That’s not to say the year has been a disaster. Aside from narrowly avoiding a life-threatening injury in a catastrophic Barcelona crash, Alex has been riding at a similar level to 2025 for much of the year.
No one could touch him at Jerez. The same could be said of Barcelona, but for a horrific collision. Plus, his return with a still-hurting right collarbone after a two-round absence was nothing short of heroic. His fifth place at Assen remains one of the grittiest rides of the year.
Australia hasn’t always been kind to the 30-year-old. His second place in the 2014 Moto3 cracker remains his only podium Down Under. But he was a competitive fourth in 2025 – and could have been higher had he not been conserving his second place in the championship. Plus, he’s been expertly quick at fast, flowing layouts this year. A podium contender.
2 – Fabio Di Giannantonio
Di Giannantonio is in the midst of his best MotoGP season. The Italian racked up a second premier-class win, two further podiums and five Sprint top-threes before the series headed east to Asia – form that earned him a factory KTM seat for 2027.
More than that, he was Ducati’s most consistent performer in the first 10 races when Marc Marquez was in and out through injury. After his own injury issues affected 2024 plus the start of 2025, the 28-year-old has benefited from a clean bill of health, plus a settled crew that was unchanged from last season – a first since his MotoGP graduation.
There have been a few disappointments. Crashing out of Germany when a podium was a certainty was one. His struggles in getting his bike off the line have been present all year. And his season lost a little momentum after the summer break, meaning he’s now out of the title picture.
But Di Giannantonio is a Phillip Island specialist. He scored a maiden MotoGP podium here in 2023, was fourth the following year with just one working shoulder, and second in 2025 – results that point to a certain podium challenge at the Island farewell.
3 – Raul Fernandez
A cynic might point out Fernandez’s 2026 has two stages: pre-contract renewal and post. In the first part of the year, there was a sense the soon-to-be 26-year-old was finally fulfilling the clear potential promised by his remarkable solo Moto2 season in 2021.
Podiums in Thailand, Holland and Germany preceded a dominant win in England. On his off days, he was still a solid top-eight guy, which made him a constant in the championship’s top five – a marked improvement on previous campaigns. And all while his post at Trackhouse was on extremely shaky ground. In Mugello, Fernandez was under the impression he was out of a ride for 2027.
Yet there’s been a notable tail-off in results since Silverstone – where his Trackhouse renewal for 2027-28 was confirmed. Could it be the mercurial Spaniard has even subconsciously lost a touch of focus since then?
Fernandez’s best result on Australian soil prior to 2025 was a 10th place. Surprising, then, that he dominated last year’s event to record a maiden MotoGP win, even if Marquez’s absence and Bezzecchi’s penalty were partly responsible. Still, the Spaniard was untouchable at Silverstone, whose fast, flowing bends aren’t dissimilar to Phillip Island. An outside shot.
THE HOME HERO – JACK MILLER
No question, Jack would prefer to have a faster bike at his disposal for his Phillip Island swansong. The 31-year-old knew it would be a long year when tasked with bringing Yamaha’s relatively new V4 M1 up to speed. Up against bikes with 10-plus years of development, 2026 was always going to be a grind.
There have been some tough moments. Finishing 67sec off victory in Austria was a low. A chronic lack of top speed has undermined his efforts. Plus, the bike’s electronics have been miles off at certain tracks.
But the occasional bright spark has reminded everyone that ‘Thriller’ still has plenty to give. An eighth place in Hungary and 11th in Aragon showed the three-time MotoGP victor has pushed the bike toward competitiveness on occasion. Leaving Europe, he was the second of the four M1s.
Jack always saves something special for his home race. His Moto3 victory in 2014 remains one of his best, while he led his first MotoGP race here in 2017. His 2019 podium and last year’s front row and fourth place in the Sprint were other highlights. Without question, he’ll want to sign off from MotoGP at home in style at this round.
