The last season of the 1000cc bruisers is accelerating to its climax, with more tension and more possible champions than for years – probably ever. And certainly in the modern four-stroke MotoGP era.
The fortunes of the top riders – five, or possibly six, even at a stretch seven – are intertwined like embroidery, as one or another has a good/bad weekend, and the scores shift yet again. If one was given to cliché, one might pronounce that “nobody wants to win this championship”. Or, more precisely, that everybody does … some a bit too much.
To recap, with 13 of 22 races run, and with a potential maximum of 333 points still available, we have seven riders in a points span of just 70. Mathematically and given a run of good luck (and some bad luck for the others), any one of them could take the crown.
Shifting fortunes have buoyed up some, only to undermine them again. Early dominance (Aprilia’s Marco Bezzecchi) was undone with a series of cruel events, arguably entirely self-imposed.
Early misfortune (Marc Marquez – Ducati) has been spectacularly reversed, with some of the best rides of his storied career. Only Marc has managed to score the maximum 37 points (Sprint and GP win) more than once. Three times, in fact. Yet throw in a weekend like the British GP (ninth and seventh) and there is an anxious undertone to the triumphant trumpets.
Only one other rider has managed max points … Jorge Martin, only once. The Aprilia-mounted Spaniard came away from the last GP at Aragon with his lead over Marquez trimmed to just 19 points.
Each candidate has had major ups and downs.
Leader Martin double-no-scored spectacularly in Catalonia, where he crashed a daunting six times. He crashed again in Hungary, taking down (among others) team-mate Bezzecchi. Yet he remains a top favourite, for a record of racking up steady scores even when he’s not winning.
Nineteen points away, Marquez. At 33 he’s battered and weakened after serial surgery to his right shoulder and arm. He will probably never regain full strength – a drawback on predominately right-handed circuits. Which is all but two of the remaining nine.
Bezzecchi, winner of the first three Sunday races (and the last two of the previous year) is only five points down. Which makes an interesting dynamic in the factory Aprilia team. Watch him and Bezzecchi taking chunks out of each other.
Fabio Di Giannantonio is fourth on the next-best Ducati, 48 points down. Chances are getting slimmer, with erratic results. His single Catalunya win came when both Marquez brothers were absent, Martin crashed, and Bezzecchi was out of sorts.
More intriguing, surprise package Ai Ogura, only three points down, after missing the last race with an injured thumb. The ex-Moto2 champ has been a revelation on a satellite Aprilia, overcoming earlier qualifying and early-lap weaknesses, even pushing winner Marquez by a matter of tenths at Brno.
A tough call for a sophomore to beat the hardened hands, but a win and three podiums are strong credentials. And wouldn’t it be amusing …
Two more within some sort of reach.
Fourteen points down and 67 off the lead, Pedro Acosta is hampered by a less-than-competitive KTM. But he’s super-talented, and has been making it fly with increasing effect.
Finally, just about possible, Ogura’s Trackhouse Aprilia team-mate Raul Fernandez, whose erratic form does include two Sprint and one GP win, to put him only three points behind Acosta.
Place your bets now, folks.
For me, heart says Marc Marquez. And so does head. But what do I know?
After all, as old man Soichiro Honda once told me: if we knew who was going to win, it would not be necessary to have the race.
