There can be only two? What was shaping up as a battle for supremacy between Marc Marquez and Pecco Bagnaia may well be shaken up by surprise contenders as the 2025 season unfolds
MANY QUESTIONS hung over the MotoGP paddock at the close of preseason testing. Will Ducati still retain its advantage despite continuing with the skeleton of its 2024 bike? Are the Japanese manufacturers really back? And just how much of a chance does reigning champ Jorge Martin have with Aprilia after basically ruling himself out of action just 13 laps into testing?
But perhaps the most prevalent is: should we be excited or scared? Excited by the expected Marc Marquez-Pecco Bagnaia showdown, which promises to be one of the great inter-team rivalries of recent times? Or scared at the fact that Marquez, the grid’s most successful rider, now finds himself in the best team and on the best bike? The Catalan’s performance on the final day of testing was ominous to say the least.
Not that this year will be all about two men. So good was its 2024 machine, Ducati couldn’t find meaningful improvement with its 2025-spec engine during testing. Thus Marquez, Bagnaia and VR46 Ducati’s Fabio Di Giannantonio shouldn’t be making crazy gains as Ducati’s GP24 did last year. Could this offer the other manufacturers a way back in?
The performances of satellite runners Alex Marquez and Franco Morbidelli over winter suggest there could be as many as five Ducatis contesting the podium in the early rounds, which doesn’t come as welcome news for a series desperate to see some variety among the manufacturer winners again after the Bologna bikes won 19 of last year’s 20 races.
Yet the spread of talent across other manufacturers suggests Ducati won’t have it so easy this year. Aprilia has never had a reigning MotoGP champion in its ranks, with Martin likely to be a contender once accustomed to the ’25 RS-GP, while Marco Bezzecchi has shown fine potential during testing. Both riders rate the front end of their new machine to be the best they’ve ever experienced.
Despite its financial dramas, KTM is present with four factory bikes in its ranks. Star rider Pedro Acosta is simply too talented to not feature somewhere toward the front, even if his performances during testing weren’t optimal.
While Yamaha and Honda won’t be winning races early on, both Japanese manufacturers have at least addressed internal issues and are on the right path forward. Testing hinted that, in the coming months, former champions Fabio Quartararo and Joan Mir could have their best seasons in quite some time.
This promises to be MotoGP’s biggest season yet. A total of 12 world champions grace the grid, with 26 titles between them. As it stands, we’ll see a 22-round series with new tracks in Hungary and a revisit to Brno in the Czech Republic. Add in 22 Sprint races and a record high of 814 points are up for grabs – meaning the tale of 2025 is likely to be one of endurance as much as it is of speed.
Marquez v Bagnaia – can it remain cordial?
It’s been lauded as MotoGP’s dream team – and with good reason. Going off preseason testing, Marc Marquez and Pecco Bagnaia will surely be the fight that decides this year’s MotoGP rider’s title. With Ducati showing few signs of slowing down during the off-season, it’s easy to see why.
Only the Valentino Rossi-Jorge Lorenzo (2013-’16) and Marquez-Lorenzo pairings (2019) had more combined titles in the four-stroke era than this one. And with 11 world titles and 126 GP victories residing in one garage, it’s rightly being touted as one of the fights of the century.
It’s been a long road back to the top but Marquez finally goes into a MotoGP season as favourite for the first time since 2020. The career-threatening injuries that haunted him in the winters of 2021-2023 are a thing of the past. And he now finds himself on the grid’s best bike and in the best team. Simply put, this year there are no excuses.
Bagnaia has faced a few hefty challenges in his time. But even the three-time champ will admit the biggest is yet to come. As early as January, Bagnaia had identified Marquez as his chief rival for the year ahead. “He was already doing an amazing job (in 2024),” he said. “Now I think the main two are us.”
But to get ahead, he knows he must work on an obvious weak point of the past three years. At 28, he’s arguably entering the prime of his career. Plus, he showed real resolve to stamp his authority on the Ducati hierarchy with Marquez last year (think Jerez but also Portimao) and it’s fair to say Bagnaia will be prepared to defend his corner until the very last in 2025. If he finds the necessary consistency, he can fight with Marquez all the way.
Martin’s long road back
It took precisely 13 laps of the first official day of preseason testing in 2025 to erase all optimism from the Aprilia camp. Jorge Martin was dramatically ruled out of days two and three of testing after suffering a single fracture to his right hand and three in his left foot in a brutal highside at Sepang.
Martin missed the final preseason test in Thailand and will miss the first round at the very least after fracturing his left foot and suffering a triple fracture in his left hand, falling from his beloved supermoto in training.
It’s hard to envision a worse start.
The No. 1 will be playing catch-up when he is finally fit again and will surely take some rounds to get up to speed. Yet expect the Spaniard to be a factor when back.
Before the Sepang crash, he had spoken of the new motivation this fresh challenge had brought.
“It’s very different compared to one year ago,” he said in January. “(That) was one of the worst moments of my life, actually. For the past two years, maybe I wasn’t motivated. I was racing and training because I’m really disciplined. So I was moved by that. But now I feel I’m really motivated and I’ve kept this discipline. I cannot guarantee I will be winning or top three but I can guarantee my 100 per cent determination. (I’ll make) a lot of sacrifices to make this project a winning project.”
At the close of testing, Marquez sounded a conciliatory note for the reigning champion: “Don’t forget Martin. OK, he’s not here and it’s easy to forget him but he’s a world champion and the Aprilia was fast.”
Are Yamaha and Honda really back?
As recently as four years ago, it would been impossible to imagine MotoGP’s Japanese contingent struggling to the extent they are now. The bleak reality is Yamaha (fourth) and Honda (fifth) have finished bottom of the Constructor’s Championship now for two years running.
Yet shoots of recovery are showing. Preseason was largely positive for both factories. Yamaha has built on its poaching of key names from Ducati at the end of 2023 by adding Pramac to its roster of teams, plus the experience of riders Jack Miller and Miguel Oliveira. The 2022 Moto2 champ Augusto Fernandez fleshes out the test team, while Andrea Dovizioso continues to step in for the injured Cal Crutchlow.
Over at Honda, there is an expanded test team from one to three riders with Aleix Espargaro now leading Takaaki Nakagami and Stefan Bradl. Plus, new Technical Director Romano Albesiano has been poached from Aprilia to steer the ship. “We reinforced a lot the test team, now it works OK,” said Joan Mir of the recent changes. “And we have the fuel of Romano inside the garage that creates a communication with the Japanese.”
Quartararo’s Yamaha was inside the top three on all three days of testing at Sepang, and his rhythm both there and in Thailand suggested he can start the year pushing for top-six places. “Happy and optimistic,” he said of his mood. “But never too optimistic.”
Mir, meanwhile, lauded Honda’s engineers – even if he feels they still have some way to go. “For the people that work there, wow, it has been impressive to be close to the top five with this machine that a couple of months ago we were not able to fight even with some test riders.”
The Contenders
#1 Jorge Martin – Aprilia Racing
At a massive early disadvantage. But the number on the front of Martin’s bike proves his pedigree. Last year showed he has a cool head to go with the lightning speed, even if that was found wanting in testing. It appears Aprilia has made steps forward, and the Spaniard will love the added responsibility that comes with his role as factory leader. Should be a contender for occasional wins but must find consistency with a package that was beyond predecessors Aleix Espargaro and Maverick Vinales.
#5 Johann Zarco – LCR Honda
In some ways, the unspoken hero of last year. On a dog of a bike that only made significant improvements in September, Zarco’s ninth in Indonesia and eighth in Thailand were Honda’s lone top-10 finishes of the year – and he showed patience and maturity in his new role as factory developer. If Honda has made the progress that preseason testing has suggested, the double Moto2 champ could find himself regularly pushing the top 10 from the off.
#10 Luca Marini – Honda HRC Castrol
Marini showed mental toughness in 2024. After ending his first two races for Honda more than 40 seconds off the winner, he had caught up to his teammate by midseason. It appears he needs a similar step after a quiet preseason, when results were 18th, 15th and 13th. He will be well aware he must improve on his best result for HRC of 12th, as Mir appears to have rekindled some old form.
#12 Maverick Vinales – Red Bull KTM Tech3
Much hype during the winter surrounded Vinales becoming the first rider in history to win with four different manufacturers. Yet early interactions with the KTM showed such talk is fanciful. The enigmatic Catalan has been impressed by the RC16’s top speed and starting ability, but is still adapting to its braking demands. As ever, he can be a handful on his day. But patience will be needed in the season’s first half.
#20 Fabio Quartararo – Monster Energy Yamaha
Even when the world was bigging up Yamaha’s improvements in Malaysia, the Frenchman remained grounded. Now 25, Quartararo is showing the required realism to go with his factory’s position. As Sepang showed, he can be among the leading names when conditions are right. Still one of MotoGP’s leading talents and can be contending for podiums if Yamaha can find a cure for its rear grip issues.
#21 Franco Morbidelli – VR46 Ducati
Arguably the big surprise of preseason. Morbidelli was always playing catch-up in 2024 after a training crash at Portimao put him out of preseason testing. Changing Pramac for VR46, but sticking with Ducati’s GP24 for this year, should be key. Finally, the Italian has some continuity. And testing performances (fourth at Sepang, sixth in Thailand) indicate he could be an early challenger for podiums.
#23 Enea Bastianini – Red Bull KTM Tech3
Preseason’s big disappointment. Bastianini’s finding out just how difficult it is to go from the grid’s best bike (Ducati) to one that’s still struggling for performance. Testing started badly in Barcelona, where he totalled his new RC16 on the first day, and followed from there. 17th at Sepang and 18th in Thailand doesn’t inspire confidence, and he also admitted his new machine “doesn’t match my riding style”. Looks like a long year ahead.
#25 Raul Fernandez – Trackhouse Aprilia
A massive frustration. Entering his fourth MotoGP season, Fernandez really shouldn’t be crashing on the first morning of Sepang, which ruled him out of the rest of the test, just as he did the previous year. Aside from great promise in Barcelona last year, Fernandez has done little to show he’s going to translate that crazy promise shown in Moto2 in 2021 to the biggest stage. Remains a mystery.
#33 Brad Binder – Red Bull KTM Factory
Last year was one of overwhelming disappointment as a title challenge never materialised. He’s acknowledged he must stamp out the mistakes that were too frequent at the start of 2024. And now he must contend with new teammate Pedro Acosta to remain KTM’s No. 1. Testing, as it so often is with Binder, was hard to read. Longer runs didn’t look promising and it’s difficult to make a case for him fighting for wins in the first part of the year.
#35 Somkiat Chantra – LCR Honda
It’s hard not to feel some sympathy for MotoGP’s first ever Thai rider. Handed the class’s worst machine after a confidence-sapping year in Moto2, Chantra is up against it after a tough offseason. Testing results of 23rd and a pair of 19ths don’t inspire confidence. It could be a tough stretch ahead for LCR Honda’s new man.
#36 Joan Mir – Honda HRC Castrol
A pleasant surprise this winter. After three desperate years, when Mir’s best championship finish has been 15th, the Majorcan was showing signs of rejuvenation in testing as he got to grips with Honda’s more friendly RC213V. He was consistently near the top six each day in Sepang. A Sprint simulation in Thailand was genuinely fast. He’s aware Honda must learn to walk before it runs: “If we can start the season in the top 10, that’d be great.”
#37 Pedro Acosta – Red Bull KTM Factory
Acosta’s talent is without question. Yet the potential of KTM’s 2025 package is still an unknown. The 20-year-old accepts he wanted it too much in 2024, crashing out when trying to win rather than collecting good points. Can he change that this term? He cut an agitated figure in Sepang, even as he insisted all was going to plan. Longer runs in Thailand showed KTM is still some way off Ducati. Expect him to go beyond what his machinery is capable of.
#42 Alex Rins – Monster Energy Yamaha
Amid all the talk of Yamaha’s resurgence, Rins still looks far from his best. Despite the Spaniard insisting there is no physical hangover from the right leg he broke in 2023, he was still walking with the aid of a crutch during testing. Eighth in Barcelona and 10th in Thailand both suggested he’s finally finding his feet in his second year at Yamaha. But matching his teammate’s results seems unrealistic.
#43 Jack Miller – Pramac Yamaha
Switching KTM for Yamaha is no easy feat. And Miller looked lost on his first test day in Barcelona, finishing 22nd, 2.2 seconds off the top. Yet he’s quickly found his feet in 2025. A huge fan of Yamaha’s user-friendly front end, Miller was regularly the second-fastest Yamaha in this year’s two tests. Reunited with Pramac, where he previously rode in 2018-19, there’s a feeling Miller can launch a surprise or two in his 10th year in the premier class.
#49 Fabio Di Giannantonio – VR46 Ducati
We should be celebrating Diggia’s comeback from serious surgery to his left shoulder in October. Instead, the Italian’s making another return from a broken collarbone, sustained rather embarrassingly from badly landing a wheelie. One of only three riders on Ducati’s latest machinery, the hardware is without question. Physical ailments may lead to a slow start but expect him to be a regular in the top five, and an occasional podium finisher.
#54 Fermin Aldeguer – Gresini Ducati
Aldeguer’s first steps in MotoGP followed his time in Moto2: blazingly fast on occasion, still far from the finished product on others. He raised eyebrows at Sepang on day two, finishing fourth. Yet Thailand showed there’s much to learn. The Spaniard is blessed with one of the grid’s best bikes. On his day, he could be fighting for top sixes. But expect inconsistency.
#63 Francesco Bagnaia – Lenovo Ducati
Arguably the biggest season of Bagnaia’s life. The three-time world champion has faced many a challenge before – but taming Marquez on the other side of the box is the biggest of the lot. He spent much of the winter analysing the many mistakes from last year, when he won an incredible 11 races (only three times in history has a premier-class rider won more). Iron those out and he should be Marquez’s closest contender.
#72 Marco Bezzecchi – Aprilia Racing
There was a lot for Bezzecchi to take on this winter: forgetting a disastrous 2024, when he never gelled with Ducati’s GP23 and finished 12th overall; becoming a factory rider for the first time; and then taking added responsibility in Aprilia’s testing program after Martin’s injury. He was the pleasant surprise of Thailand, finishing fourth overall, a result that hinted the 2023 version of Bezzecchi could well be back.
#73 Alex Marquez – Gresini Ducati
The star of preseason. The double world champ (Moto2/3)was fastest in Barcelona and Malaysia and second in Thailand. His adaptation to the year-old Ducati GP24 has been seamless, and he’s backed up his time attacks with strong longer runs. Even his older brother is wary of his speed in the early rounds. Expect Alex, now in his sixth MotoGP campaign, to be knocking on the door of race wins on occasion.
#79 Ai Ogura – Trackhouse Aprilia
Even the reigning Moto2 champion admits he isn’t among the most talented riders in the class. But what Ogura’s Trackhouse Aprilia team have found is a calm, measured figure that thinks before he acts. Still adapting to MotoGP machinery and has improvements to make in braking. Should push Aldeguer hard for the year’s best rookie gong.
#88 Miguel Oliveira – Pramac Yamaha
No one expected the Portuguese hotshot to be fast straight away with Pramac Yamaha, yet he’s consistently been slower than teammate Miller in Malaysia (16th) and Thailand (20th). After such an uninspiring year with Aprilia in 2024, it remains to be seen if Oliveira can recapture his best form, last shown just under two years ago.
#93 Marc Marquez – Lenovo Ducati
Surely the championship favourite. It’s hard to spot many flaws in Marquez’s make-up. Perhaps the number of crashes, which was… more than Bagnaia last year? Or the fact he’s working with a new team and crew for a second straight year? Even then, preseason was close to flawless. No one can match his natural talent or sheer cannibalistic hunger. There’s no question he’ll be winning races this season. And lots of them. It will take a true force to stop him.
Neil Morrison’s Championship Prediction:
1. Marc Marquez
2. Pecco Bagnaia
3. Pedro Acosta
4. Jorge Martin
5. Alex Marquez
