As the clock winds down on the 1000cc era, who can take down the mighty Marquez?
As MotoGP lurched through June and July last year, it was tough to make a case for tuning in to watch. Aside from Marc Marquez’s comeback narrative, there was precious little else to get the pulse racing. There was no title fight to speak of as Ducati continued to slaughter all before them, and the Catalan was winning with such ease, it was hard to envision anyone laying a glove on him in 2026, never mind the rest of 2025.
But here we are, eight months on, and the prognosis is a good deal brighter. While next to no one is questioning Marquez’s chances of adding a 10th crown to his haul, there is a sense he won’t have it quite as easy in this final season of the current regulations, defined by 1000cc engines, untamed aerodynamics and blasted ride height devices.
First, Marquez has had to return from yet another serious injury. Endless physio on a broken right shoulder blade replaced what should have been a holiday spent quaffing the winner’s champagne. While fast and confident during preseason, he appeared thin and gaunt (this level of dedication isn’t as easy to maintain as you edge your way into your mid-30s). Plus, a host of names got a taste of the podium prosecco during his four-race absence in October and November.
Yes, Ducati appears to be retaining its superiority over the rest. The Bologna bikes occupied five of the top seven spots at the Sepang test. What was more, the longer runs during testing offered bleak reading for the rest. Alex Marquez was the fastest of the lot at Sepang, his average time over 10 laps coming in at 1m58.027sec. (Pecco Bagnaia’s was 1m58.166s, Marc Marquez’s a 1m58.289). Pedro Acosta – the first non-Ducati – was more than six-tenths slower per lap.
But the winners of last year’s triple crown know they won’t have it all their own way. Aprilia had grounds to boast of having the grid’s best bike in the final rounds of 2025. And Marco Bezzecchi has flown under the radar during testing. Then, after a year of financial uncertainty, KTM has enjoyed a calm offseason with chief shareholder Bajaj now at the helm. Even Honda hasn’t stood still after its best season in four years.
There are as many as 12 riders who could possibly win races. Only Yamaha still lags behind. Plus, as each factory shifts focus and intensifies development of its 850cc machine ahead of next year’s technical changes, the current fastest machines will remain as they are from May on. In theory, that should lead to closer competition as the season moves past the midway point.
Just like 2025, this season will be another whopper. A total of 15 world champions – including the current WorldSBK champ Toprak Razgatlioglu– grace the grid, with 32 titles between them. For the second year, a 22-round series hits 19 countries. Brazil’s revived Autodromo Internacional de Goiania replaces Argentina’s Termas de Rio Hondo in April. And you won’t want to miss what could be Phillip Island’s Grand Prix swansong on 23-25 October.
The concessions are working
As dominant as the Marquez brothers were in 2025, scoring an incredible 14 victories (and 17 Sprint wins) between them, there is a little more hope that a number of names can take the fight to them than this time a year ago. Pecco Bagnaia, for one, was a man reborn at the Sepang test, albeit at an admittedly good track for him and his Ducati. The same could be said of Fabio Di Giannantonio, no longer pedalling the temperamental GP25 for VR46.
And that’s just in Ducati. One thing series organiser Dorna got right in recent years was the concessions system, introduced at the end of 2023. Now restricted in the amount they can test during the year, the red bikes’ domination has been curbed slightly. From scoring 96 per cent of the points on offer in the 2023 Constructor’s Championship and 97pc in 2024, that number fell to ‘just’ 94pc last year.
Aprilia was able to finish second in last year’s Constructor’s Championship, despite its star signing only completing five full weekends. Imagine what it can do with a fully firing squad this term.
Plus, KTM roughly matched its 2024 points haul despite being mired in financial uncertainty this time a year ago when its development direction was understandably confused. Yet as Motorsport Director Pit Beirer recently proclaimed: “This year we have a stable budget, strong planning.” And that has allowed engineers to address the weakness of the RC16, namely an aggressive use of its rear tyre. “Some problems we wanted to fix, they are solved,” he said confidently.
The concessions offered to Honda allowed them to score 210 points more in 2025 than the previous year thanks to a renewed enthusiasm and development direction. Judging by the Sepang test, Joan Mir will feature toward the front again. “The target is to win as soon as possible, clearly,” said Alberto Puig – not an entirely unrealistic aim.
The shortest silly season in history
One of the year’s slated stories was how the rider market for 2027 would develop. With all bar three of the grid’s 22 riders out of contract at the end of the year, MotoGP is poised for a game of musical chairs.
“Everybody’s talking to everybody,” confirmed Honda HRC Castrol Team Manager Alberto Puig regarding the open dialogue between MotoGP’s five factories and riders at the Sepang test. The fact 2027 is the start of MotoGP’s new technical era with 850cc engines means riders are open to hedging their bets where they’d otherwise play it safe. “If there’s one year you can take risks, it’s next year,” argued Alex Marquez.
But the silliest of MotoGP silly seasons is in danger of finishing before this season even gets underway. After the lead-up to the Sepang test, when a flurry of hype indicated Yamaha’s Fabio Quartararo was off to Honda in 2027, Acosta to Ducati and Jorge Martin to Yamaha, not one of that trio denied the links to opposing factories. Quartararo insisted “nothing is signed”, but admitted Honda is a serious option. Both Acosta and Martin stated “the focus is on 2026”.
Marc Marquez is poised to renew with Ducati, while Bezzecchi has already done so with Aprilia. Further talk has centred on two of preseason’s big winners: Alex Marquez and Pecco Bagnaia, with the former heavily linked with a move to KTM’s factory squad to partner Maverick Vinales. The latter, meanwhile, is believed to be weighing up offers from Yamaha and Aprilia, with Honda also a possibility.
While some are tipping next year’s 10 factory seats to be decided by the season opener, it will be interesting to see how that affects this year. Take Martin, Quartararo or Acosta. Just how long will their patience with the failings of their current projects stretch when a new challenge in new teams is just around the corner?
Yamaha and Toprak: getting up to speed
The early months of 2026 were always going to be tricky for the Iwata factory – and new star signing Toprak Razgatlioglu – as it gets up to speed after retiring its inline-four M1 engine for the first time in the four-stroke era. Yet not even the most pessimistic could have envisioned its preseason from hell.
The V4 YZR-M1 that made three wildcard appearances at the close of last year was essentially a new engine packaged in the previous bike. Yamaha has brought updates to almost all items. Even still, they were consistently the slowest bikes through the speed trap, some 11km/h down on their rivals. Chassis and swingarm changes have been considerable, meaning a base setting is some way off.
That was low down on their list of worries, however. First, Quartararo was ruled out of two days of the Malaysian test because of injury. Then, for the first time in modern history, a top MotoGP factory had to sit out a full day of testing after Quartararo and Razgatlioglu apparently blew their engines in Sepang.
This is a tough scenario for Razgatlioglu to make his MotoGP debut in. Finally, we can judge his extraordinary talent against the very best in the world. But it’s been a brutal initiation. The winner of 21 WorldSBK races last season was 19th overall, 1.9sec back off the top in the year’s first preseason test.
“My feeling with the (Michelin) front is good, I’m strong on the brakes,” he said. “But I still can’t understand the rear.” A rethink on riding style is also needed. “In Superbike I rode aggressive. Here I need to be much smoother.” Riding for any other factory, Toprak’s MotoGP move would get top billing. But as Yamaha seeks a way forward, 2026 is looking more like a baptism of fire.
The form guide
#10 Luca Marini – Honda HRC Castrol
Luca’s seventh place in Valencia, which lifted Honda out of ‘Category D’ concessions, was celebrated like a championship victory. It also represented a fine comeback from a horror injury in May, when testing for the Suzuka 8-Hour. By August he was regularly fighting for top sixes. Still, in certain big moments last year – Indonesia and Malaysia spring to mind – he didn’t show the requisite aggression to seal a big result. He must address that this year.
#11 Diogo Moreira – LCR Honda
Toprak isn’t the only rookie of note. The reigning Moto2 champ is as naturally gifted as the best of them, matching the Marquez brothers in flat track and motocross. He finally made good on that talent in 2025. Yet testing was tricky. Technical issues deprived him of running during the Shakedown test, while arm pump also slowed him. He’s picked a fine time to join Honda, however. Overcome his physical issues and the Brazilian should launch an occasional surprise this year.
#12 Maverick Vinales – Red Bull KTM Tech3
Maverick was riding better than ever last May and June as he single-handedly kept KTM’s ship afloat. While others gave up hope, the mercurial Catalan’s awesome corner speed and new positive attitude shone through. Cruel, then, that his season ultimately ended when he tore shoulder ligaments in June. He’s back to full fitness now. Plus, he has a new trainer in the form of Jorge Lorenzo. He’ll be aiming to become the first in history to win a race with a fourth manufacturer.
#20 Fabio Quartararo – Monster Energy Yamaha
It can’t be easy for Fabio right now. Last year’s single podium (and two in Sprints) plus five pole positions showed he remains one of the very best. But preseason was disastrous. He left Sepang two days early after breaking a finger. Plus, he was less than enamoured with Yamaha’s new V4. Even if he’s off to Honda in 2027, the 26-year-old gives the impression he’d rather be anywhere than at Yamaha.
#21 Franco Morbidelli – VR46 Ducati
2025 was Franco’s best season since 2020. Yet last year’s seventh-best rider wasn’t entirely convincing. For every podium (Argentina, Qatar) there was a moment that bordered on farcical (crashing into Aleix Espargaro before the Valencia start and breaking his hand, anyone?). And shouldn’t he be at least winning races on the grid’s best bike? The Italian is riding for his future this year. He was sixth at the Sepang test and looks good. But you’re never sure which Franco you’ll get.
#23 Enea Bastianini – Red Bull KTM Tech3
KTM’s perilous financial situation, adapting to a radically different bike and losing his crew chief mid-season all contributed to a turbulent 2025 for Enea. There were still flashes of the rider who had finished fourth the previous year in Czechia, Hungary and Barcelona but too often he only came alive on Sundays. This winter has been much more settled. Enea was a solid 11th at the Sepang test. Qualifying must improve. On his day he’s a real podium contender.
#25 Raul Fernandez – Trackhouse Aprilia
No question 2025 rescued Raul’s reputation. For three and a half seasons, he was the series’ big frustration as he stumbled from one underwhelming weekend to the next. Yet last June it started to click. Changes to Aprilia’s RS-GP at the Aragon test made him more comfortable. He soon went from regular top 10 finisher to occasional front runner and race winner. Testing wasn’t conclusive. He may need time to adjust to the refined ’26 RS-GP but could spring a surprise.
#33 Brad Binder – Red Bull KTM Factory
If 2024 was underwhelming (fifth overall), then 2025 was disastrous for the South African. Consistently outperformed by Acosta and Vinales on the same package, he failed to score a podium for the first time in his premier class career. There was still a run of solid top tens from midseason. Now working with new crew chief Phil Marron, formerly of Toprak’s stable in WorldSBK, Binder must qualify better to retain his MotoGP seat.
#36 Joan Mir – Honda HRC Castrol
Since joining in 2023, Mir’s fortunes have mirrored Honda’s. Two disastrous years brought little other than agony. Yet once Honda reorganised and refocused late in 2024, so did the 2020 champ. There were signs of that rider in the second half of last year as he scored two hugely impressive dry podiums. Testing showed that Honda has made further steps forward. And Mir has flourished. Thing is, Team Manager Alberto Puig now expects him to win – a tall order considering his opponents.
#37 Pedro Acosta – Red Bull KTM Factory
This time a year ago Acosta was mad as hell and wanted everyone to know it – an approach that favoured no one. He’s a calmer, more mature figure now. Testing showed as much, as he was consistently fast without crashing. In an indication of what he’s capable of this year, no one rode better in the final six races of last season. And if KTM can carry its preseason’s small improvements into the first race weekend, expect Pedro – still just 21 years old – to be a regular front runner.
#42 Alex Rins – Monster Energy Yamaha
Once third in the world (way back in 2020), the Spaniard has rarely looked capable of replicating that form since breaking his right leg in 2023. Only in unique tracks and conditions – Indonesia and Phillip Island spring to mind – did he look like his old self in 2025. But that was on Yamaha’s inline four. His past two championship finishes (18th, 19th) give little hope for a year to be spent developing the new V4.
#43 Jack Miller – Pramac Yamaha
Miller was faced with the third big manufacturer switch of his career in 2025. He initially did well, outpacing Quartararo in Thailand and outscoring him in Texas. But he soon ran into the limitations of Yamaha’s old inline four, finishing 17th overall. He’s been the model professional this offseason, using past experience to develop the V4, even attempting a diplomatic spin on a tough Malaysian test. Jack knows he’ll have to knuckle down in the early races and hope technical upgrades aren’t long coming.
#49 Fabio Di Giannantonio – VR46 Ducati
Diggia has enjoyed some welcome calm and continuity through winter. He was always on the backfoot through 2025 as a preseason injury, new crew chief and tricky bike (GP25) all led to a disappointing sixth overall, even if he enjoyed three podium finishes. There’ve been no such dramas so far this year. And the Roman gelled instantly with Ducati’s GP26, which is a very good omen for his future. He should be a regular podium contender.
#54 Fermin Aldeguer – Gresini Ducati
Last year’s Rookie of the Year is facing an almighty task this time around. Aldeguer cracked his left femur in a training accident in early January, forcing him out of preseason (and placing him in doubt for the early races). The 21-year-old had the luxury of riding without pressure in 2025 – but that’s certainly not the case this year. In Moto2 in 2024 he couldn’t handle it, slumping from preseason favorite to fifth overall. Adding to his win tally of one would show he now can.
#63 Pecco Bagnaia – Lenovo Ducati
Bagnaia was tipped in these pages a year ago to be his teammate’s chief rival. That quickly unravelled as a lack of front-end feel underpinned a deeply dispiriting campaign. But a long winter break was just what was needed. Picking the brains of mentor Valentino Rossi in December provided him with a new outlook: to not be so hard on himself. He looked reborn in testing, where Team Manager Davide Tardozzi said he was reminiscent of “2024 Pecco”. If that’s the case, he could well be a title contender.
#72 Marco Bezzecchi – Aprilia Racing
One rider thrived the most in the Marquez-less MotoGP at the end of 2025: Bezzecchi. Leading Aprilia ably in Jorge Martin’s enforced absence, he was rewarded with a contract bump for 2027 and beyond. Testing performances made it easy to see why. The ever-smiling Bez insisted on riding longer runs with extremely used tyres. His bosses are convinced he can build on his three wins (plus three Sprints) from last year and push Marc hardest this time around.
#73 Alex Marquez – Gresini Ducati
Three wins (plus three Sprints) and 12 podiums (and 16 more in Sprints) were enough for second overall last year in his best season to date. Yet preseason has shown that was no one-off. Alex was faster and more consistent than anyone at Sepang. Now riding a full factory Ducati, he’s gelled immediately with the GP26. There’s no reason to think he can’t replicate last year’s success, even if it’s hard to see him bettering his 2025 championship position.
#79 Ai Ogura – Trackhouse Aprilia
Which Ogura can we expect to see in 2026? The one who amazed onlookers in his MotoGP debut in Thailand, where he finished fourth? Or the rider who retreated into his shell after big prangs at Silverstone and Misano? In theory the 2024 Moto2 champion should be well placed to take advantage of Aprilia’s gains. But the changes to the RS-GP haven’t suited his riding style yet. Ai will have to be a great deal more consistent this season to keep his seat.
#89 Jorge Martin – Aprilia Racing
For the second season running, Martin starts off at a massive disadvantage. His misfortunes showed few signs of abating during the winter. He underwent surgery to correct injuries from last year (left wrist, right shoulder), forcing him to miss the Sepang test. Yes, the Aprilia’s improved, but Martin has yet to make it his bike. Amazingly, 22 rounds into his Aprilia career, he has still only completed for five weekends – and looks set to leave in 2027. It could take time before he clicks.
#93 Marc Marquez – Lenovo Ducati
It says something that Marquez has endured his seventh winter of recovery from substantial injury in the past nine years and is still considered the favourite hands down. The 33-year-old is riding in the knowledge that one more big crash could have grave consequences for his career. And his rivals have edged closer during testing after getting a taste for victory in his absence. But it will take an all-time great performance to topple the current king – at the peak of his powers – from his throne.
The Moto2 contenders
#18 Manuel Gonzalez – Liqui Moly Dynavolt IntactGP Kalex
The Spaniard came agonisingly close to the title in 2025, leading the series from Rounds 1 to 20 thanks to four wins and unerring consistency. But there was a sense the former Supersport 300 champ went on the defensive much too soon and was unable to react when he eventually fell behind. Missing out on a possible MotoGP seat was also a factor. A second year in the team should be of benefit in what is now his fifth year in the class.
#80 David Alonso – CFMOTO Aspar Kalex
Anyone who watched the Colombian slaughter the Moto3 opposition two years ago is waiting for him to do the same in Moto2. Last year’s rookie campaign was a slog at first but there was a sense the 19-year-old had picked it up eight races in. By the end of the year, he was regularly fighting for podiums. Should his second year in this class go the same way as in the junior category, the best had better watch out.
#96 Daniel Holgado – CFMOTO Aspar Kalex
One of last year’s Moto2 surprises came in the form of Alonso’s fellow rookie and teammate, who not only took two wins to Alonso’s one, but outscored the Colombian in the championship. What’s more, the manner of his victories in Barcelona and Japan were dominant. A top-10 finisher in 15 of the year’s 22 races, Holgado showed he can build a consistent campaign. With a full year of Moto2 experience behind him, he could take some beating this year.
#81 Senna Agius – Liqui Moly Dynavolt IntactGP Kalex
You could make a case for Senna lacking the consistency to be a major Moto2 player in 2025. But the 20-year-old took a massive leap forward in his second Grand Prix campaign, winning two races and scoring two further podiums. And just how he handled the pressure of his home GP marked him out for a special future. He knows qualifying must improve in 2026. A workaholic away from the track, Senna will no doubt have worked on last year’s weaknesses before Thailand.
The Moto3 contenders
#28 Maximo Quiles – CFMOTO Aspar KTM
Few rookie seasons in recent memory have taken the breath away quite like Quiles’ in 2025. Marc Marquez’s protegee spectacularly led the first lap of his first GP in Austin before scoring a maiden podium in his third outing and winning his fifth. He finished outside the top seven just twice in his 18 appearances and often took a clever approach, knowing he needed to play down the reckless reputation he’d developed in the Red Bull Rookies. The preseason favourite.
#64 David Munoz – Liqui Moly Dynavolt InactGP KTM
While his talent was clear from his first GP appearance in 2022, it was tricky to warm to the tearaway Spaniard. Yes, there was much to admire in his gung-ho approach but he’d so often let himself down by stupid mistakes that put his rivals in real danger. The penny seemed to drop last year. He duly won three races and would have finished higher overall if he hadn’t broken his leg in Indonesia. Now fully healed, he’s a title contender.
#83 Alvaro Carpe – Red Bull KTM Ajo
Another rapid Spaniard who took the world championship by storm in 2025. Carpe stood on the podium during his first Moto3 race last March and was firmly in title contention by the mid-year summer break. But he appeared distracted by fellow rookie Quiles’ speed after this, leading to something of a lull. But Carpe fought back and was twice on the podium again in the closing races to seal fourth overall. He’ll be expected to push on, win races and fight for the title in year two.
#66 Joel Kelso – Gryd MLav Racing Honda
To say Kelso’s taking a risk in 2026 is something of an understatement. Leaving a KTM, on which he took his best championship finish to date, to ride for the unproven MLav Racing team (13th and last in 2025’s Team Championship) was a surprising decision. But he didn’t have to pay for his current seat. Plus, Joel had some clauses inserted in his contract – such as insisting the team does aero work in the wind tunnel. It’ll be fascinating to see how this new adventure goes.
#18 Cormac Buchanan – BOE Motorsport KTM
Cormac’s rookie season could be split into two halves: the first was eye-catching, featuring a top 10 in just his third race. The second was eye-catching for the wrong reasons: after injury in Czechia he scored just five more points all year. All the while he racked up 35 crashes over the season, more than any other rider. More experience in his second year in the same team should help him get back toward consistent top 10 finishes.
