So we’re back (third time this year) addressing a familiar question: Will Toprak Razgatlioglu move to MotoGP? Now, at last, after years, we have the answer.

It’s “Yes”.

Previously, I cast doubt on his prospects. Partly because of the struggles of predecessors making the same move, but mainly because aged 29 in October, he’s left it a bit late. Yamaha has been able to overcome those doubts and have taken the plunge.

It seems also he had some doubts to overcome. About Yamaha. And about joining a full factory team, which he previously insisted was essential. He’s signed for Pramac Yamaha instead, which while it nominally has exactly the same status as the Yamaha Motor team… well, it is only nominal.

Actually, the enterprise has a sort of slightly desperate ‘last chance’ feeling. Toprak first tested a Yamaha MotoGP bike back in 2022. The previous year he’d won the Iwata factory’s second Superbike championship. Beaten by Bautista’s Ducati the following two years, he switched to BMW, to win the German marque’s first title. He might repeat the feat this year.

In that time he provided most of the excitement, with a penchant for spectacular front-wheel-stand ‘stoppies’ the highlight of a flamboyant riding style that leans heavily on hard braking and corner entry.

In 2022 he wasn’t impressed (or more likely didn’t impress) enough to jump straight into the factory team.

Back then Yamaha were still riding high. Quartararo had won the title in 2021 and he was a prime contender for a repeat, until Pecco Bagnaia eventually found his Ducati mojo.

Things are different now. Yamaha (along with Honda) is struggling to adapt not only its motorcycle but its whole racing approach, to match the European surge led by Ducati. Some recent Quartararo runs have been promising, especially a near victory at Silverstone, sadly self-cancelled by mechanical failure. But these were superhuman efforts by a hugely talented and experienced grand-prix champion. There is still a hill to climb.

Thus, the Turk has signed up for quite a task. Not only does he have to adapt his style to a very different bike on completely different Michelin tyres, but he also finds himself in the middle of a development program. Which at least, thanks to Yamaha’s position as a down-table ‘concession’ team, does allow a plentiful amount of testing.

Riders with experience of both production-based Superbikes and race-bred MotoGP prototypes warn that though lap times are sometimes not that dissimilar, there are significant differences, both in the possibilities they offer to a rider and in demands made on them.

Apart from more horsepower, it’s the much stiffer chassis. A Superbike (riders say) is relatively loose and amenable, tolerating and even benefiting from forceful handling. You can chuck them around and get away with it.

Not so a MotoGP bike. Riding technique is much more nuanced and refined, and the bikes much more exacting. Getting the best out of them requires more sensitivity and subtlety.

Being good at jamming the brakes on hard is not enough.

Not that this describes the limit of Toprak’s abilities. Far from it. But he faces a severe test, and (not to labour the point) he’s left it late. Riders typically find it easier to learn new techniques at the beginning of their careers, rather than when they are approaching the end.

The change from Pirelli to Michelin tyres is the other big hurdle. Marc Marquez has talked of his apprehension at making the reverse change in 2027, when Pirelli replaces the French company as the control-tyre supplier.

Toprak, by contrast, alone on the grid, has Pirelli experience. This could come in handy.

He’ll need all the help he can get. But he has the chance, if it all goes well, to prove that he is not just a good production-bike racer, but one of the true greats.