Michael Scott ponders the Ai Ogura Aprilia signing and what it means for Honda…

It’s a curious state of affairs when Honda’s favourite protege signs for Aprilia. Talk about topsy turvy.

But that’s what’s happened to Ai Ogura, Japan’s brightest hope for years. Earmarked for Honda in MotoGP for years, this rider has found better things to do.

Meanwhile, his great friend and former Honda Team Asia Moto2 teammate Somkiat Chantra has done the opposite, fulfilling what was once (and probably will be again) every rider’s dream: a MotoGP ride with Honda.

Everything about Honda is topsy turvy right now. The winningest brand in racing history is plum last in the constructors championship, for the third year in succession.

Put this into proportion. In 75 years of this championship, Honda has won 25 times. Next – MV Agusta with 16, Yamaha with 14 and Suzuki with seven. As for race wins; 313 to Yamaha’s 245, MV’s 139 and Suzuki’s 97. But Honda’s last was in 2023, the only one in two years.

Ai Ogura has signed for Aprilia

It’s not just a couple of years of near misses, it’s a juggernaut careering down the canyon, completely out of control. 

It’s hard to comprehend. Yet also quite explicable. Honda has been left behind by innovative European engineers. Their creative interpretation of the rules has outflanked the Japanese powerhouse.

Is this a national characteristic, of obeying rules rather than trying to find a way around them? Tempting, but this theory is too simplistic, too stereotypical. Yet Honda’s initial racing success was the opposite of innovation, relying on proven engineering principles but executing them better. Before you argue, adding more cylinders isn’t innovative; although doing so successfully is fruitful.

Modern prescriptive technical regs mean Honda can’t do that now. Sadly. Everybody feels nostalgia not just for the five-cylinder 125cc and six-cylinder 250/350 of the 1960s but also for the sonorous and superior V5 of the first five years of the four-stroke MotoGP era.

The innovation that has left Honda (and Yamaha) trailing is much more blue-sky. Most of it by Ducati’s Gigi Dall’Igna, an accomplished finder of loopholes and circumventor of restrictions.

Ducati pioneered wings 10 years ago, and ever since has been a step ahead of its imitators, now and then with the exception of Aprilia. While the rest copied top wings, Ducati switched to fairing-flanks. Then pioneered the swingarm ‘spoon’, which they successfully argued, against protests led by Aprilia, was to cool the rear tyre rather than an aerodynamic aid. The extra downforce it provided was just a bonus.

Then followed the stegosaurus seat spines, winglets on fork sliders and swingarms, all evading new rules which short-sightedly applied only to existing wings.

Ai Ogura was widely tipped for a move to Honda in MotoGP but signed with Aprilia instead

Honda was slow to copy, and has still not caught up.

The same applies to Ducati-pioneered genuflecting ride-height devices, which neatly outflanked a long-standing ban on active suspension.

Now HRC has reportedly restructured, an attempt to be less linear. Rumours of a new technical base in Milan, something more than the current logistical base in Spain, follow Yamaha’s earlier move to Italy. It’s hired Aleix Espargaro to join Stefan Bradl in the Europe-based test team; current rider Nakagami will test in Japan. Christhian Pupulin, Jack Miller’s crew chief at Ducati and KTM since 2018, joins Honda next year, a very experienced track engineer.

As important, 2027’s MotoGP restructure: ride-height devices banned, aerodynamics restricted. This should also play to Honda’s strengths: building motorcycles rather than two-wheel aerodynes.

The time-frame is also promising for racing’s classic senior factory… the pace of improvement this year has been very slow.

Chantra’s move to Honda could prove well-timed – the bike returning to full strength just as he gains MotoGP experience. Likewise things could come good for current Repsol incumbents Joan Mir and Luca Marini. 

And Ogura? As he said of his switch to Aprilia: “I’ve grown up with Honda. Maybe I can finish my career with them. Let’s see, because it’s not only in my hands.”