DUEL IN THE DUNES

Dakar formula is changed for 2025 to ‘sow chaos among the title contenders’

Originally a trans-Sahara adventure for a band of dilettantes whose only objective was to get to the party before the champagne ran out, Dakar has morphed into a tightly orchestrated, million-dollar spectacular. Cirque du Soleil on steroids.

With the circus contracted to remain in Arabia until 2029, Course Director David Castera continues to manipulate the regulations, reconfiguring the route in the interests of safety and parity – a task made easier by the mandated use of electronic roadbooks.

For 2025 the motos, autos and trucks will race separate courses on five or more of the timed stages; specifically the 48Hour Chrono Stage – which has been doubled in length to 950km. According to Castera this will “amp up the drama and sow chaos among the title contenders”. Sounds like a great safety move.

The traditional marathon stage will remain,  along with further refinements to the bonus points on offer for the rider(s) opening the piste. There are also reports of a motocross start on the final stage to increase the spectacle – as ludicrous as this may sound to the diehards.

BRABEC VERSUS SANDERS

After joining the Honda Team in 2017, Ricky Brabec remained steadfast despite unreliable equipment and erratic team organisation. It appears he tolerated his tenure in order to mould both his machine and management to his wishes, which just so happened to coincide with the entire Dakar circus relocating from the mountains of South America to the shifting sands of Saudi Arabia in 2020.

It was in Arabia that Brabec smashed two decades of KTM dominance, taking the victory Honda had been chasing for seven discouraging years. What was overlooked was that Brabec had won only two stages of the event – both before the rest day. Yet, without a single stage win in the second week of the rally, he maintained a winning margin all the way to the finish – an astonishing achievement.

Subsequently, Honda proved indomitable in the 2024 Dakar. Tosha Schareina won the prologue before teammates Adrien Van Beveren, Jose Ignatio Cornejo and Pablo Quintanilla totally controlled the rally all the way to Stage 10; the only stage won by Ricky Brabec. A move superbly executed to secure his second victory. The cunning tactician now has two Dakar trophies on the back of only three stage wins; and appears set for his third win in the 2025 event.

Aussie Daniel Sanders served his Dakar apprenticeship the hard way. Plaudits for Rookie of the Year in 2021 were followed by two stage wins, then dismay after a pre-dawn accident busted his elbow and wrist, putting him out of the event while running third outright.

Even so, after having had to open the piste after his two stage wins, Sanders wasn’t the first to acknowledge that speed isn’t the only requirement for success. “You have to be strategic in Dakar, but I didn’t like the idea that riders can hover around fourth position, never winning a stage, yet finish in the outright standings.”

In 2023 this inequity was of no consequence to Sanders. With his elbow not yet fully healed, a bout of food poisoning and a 20mm thorn festering in his shoulder, the last thing on his mind was gaming the system. Later, a busted femur while training left him short of preparation – precluding any chance of a podium in the 2024 Dakar.

Then, in October, Sanders’ supremacy in the 2024 Rallye du Maroc was defining proof of his ability. Now, with a close-knit, well-focused team, his first challenge is teammate Luciano Benavides. Elder brother Kevin Benavides has been carrying a bad wrist injury since May, so it’s doubtful he’ll play more than a supporting role in 2025.

Over in the red camp, team manager Ruben Faria knows that, however much Honda favours Brabec, disaster lurks over every dune.

Winner of Dakar’s 2024 Chrono 48 stage, Adrien Van Beveren is no stranger to the podium and, should Brabec or Sanders encounter problems, he’ll be the most likely benefactor of the crisis.

Ever since the crash that cost him victory in 2019, Pablo Quintanilla appears to have taken a more prudent approach. Unlike his teammate Tosha Schareina, who is emulating Joan Barreda-Bort; a bloke who amassed a total of 29 stage wins while never putting a foot on the Dakar podium. The fifth member of the Honda team, Skyler Howes, badly injured in the recent Vegas to Barstow Desert Race, is also an unlikely starter.

Not so long ago, any suggestion that a bloke from Botswana on a bike built in Rajasthan would wrap up the World Championship in Morocco would have prompted a request not to hog the hash pipe. But, due to his hard-fought second outright in the 2024 Dakar, the dithering by Honda and the restructuring of KTM, Ross Branch was crowned 2024 FIM Rally Raid Champion.

Ably supported by his Hero teammates Sebastian Buhler and Jose Ignacio Cornejo Florimo, Branch hopes to go one better in Dakar 2025 but, given the strength and depth of the Honda and KTM teams, a second podium will be a stretch for this tough guy.

Every one of these contenders has a strong chance of a stage win – particularly Schareina – but, crashes and technical issues aside, the 2025 Dakar really is a two-horse race.