Our pick of the contenders and pretenders as Phillip Island prepares for MotoGP magic

The fastest motorcycles in the world are poised to be unleashed around quite possibly the best circuit. Just a mention of speeds approaching 350km/h along Gardner Straight, rear slides through Stoner Corner and lead groups of up to eight bikes are enough to get the pulse racing. And whether it’s rain, gales or shine, you just know Phillip Island will deliver.

There’s a case to be made for 2025 not being a MotoGP vintage encounter. Marc Marquez has completed one of the sporting world’s greatest comeback feats only to be sidelined by injury, while Jorge Martín and Maverick Vinales’ withdrawals have left the racing landscape looking decidedly flatter than hoped. Their absence, though, only amplifies the sense of opportunity – and unpredictability – that Phillip Island thrives on. Its exquisite natural setting features a fast and flowing layout. The Doohan and Stoner Corners, the Hayshed, Lukey Heights and Turn 12 all rank among the very best in the world, where riders, not machinery, can make the vital difference.

Three of MotoGP’s most recent outings are proof it produces the best racing. Be it a thrilling eight-bike scrap for the lead in 2022; a championship protagonist tripping over his own ego in 2023; or Marquez’s own manic comeback to win having slid and spun over a tear-off on the grid… the Island always delivers.

There’s no question it’s poised to do so again.

THE CHALLENGERS

1 – Fermin Aldeguer

Aldeguer guaranteed himself a spot in the history books in Indonesia by becoming the second youngest rider in premier class history to win a race.

Despite recent results, for many the jury remains out on MotoGP’s latest Spanish prodigy. His Moto2 form was too up and down to mount a serious title challenge in 2024. Plus, there’s no question he’s in the enviable position of being on the grid’s best bike.

But look at the numbers and this has been an impressive rookie year. Add the Mandalika win to double podiums in just his sixth MotoGP round, as well as his pushing of Marc Marquez hardest in Austria, and there have certainly been some highlights.

Add in the fact that he took an alternative route to the top – making his name in the Spanish Superstock 600 championship, MotoE and European Moto2 series before jumping across to the Moto2 world championship aged just 16 – and perhaps we can forgive a few of his inconsistencies in previous years.

He’s a big fan of Phillip Island as well. He was fourth here in his debut in 2022 and would have won but for a shoddy rear Dunlop. He took third a year later before winning in 2024. A definite dark horse for another podium in 2025.

2 – Alex Marquez

No matter how highly thought of the former Moto2 and Moto3 world champion was, no one expected Alex to be his brother’s chief contender at this point.

Alex is adamant there was enough in the second half of 2024, when he was struggling aboard an uncompetitive Ducati GP23, to suggest he was a top rider. And once he jumped on the GP24 at the first preseason test, he knew this year offered up his best ever chance at a top-three championship finish.

And so it proved. He scored seven podiums in the season’s first half, including a first premier-class victory at Jerez. He’s been exceptional on Saturdays, scoring 11 Sprint podiums from the first 14 rounds. Yes, his form tailed away after he broke a bone in his hand at Assen in mid-June. But this is still a fine championship performance from a satellite rider on a year-old bike.

His Phillip Island record has been sketchy. He scored just one podium here back in his Moto3 days (2014), and he’s yet to crack the track on a MotoGP machine. Yet Alex has been among the fastest at any fast, flowing layout we’ve visited this year. Can this year’s great revelation cause a huge upset and end up on the top step of the podium?

3 – Marco Bezzecchi

On the one hand, Aprilia’s first half of 2025 was tumultuous. First, it lost its star signing Jorge Martin to a series of three serious injuries. That rider then started jostling for a move away from the factory. Yet, Bezzecchi offered some much-needed calm. And his speed in part convinced his teammate to stay put for another year.

Along with Alex Marquez, the Italian has been among the year’s biggest surprises. Possessing rhythm to challenge for the podium from preseason, it took him nine rounds to learn how to qualify. He’s been a podium challenger ever since, thanks to Aprilia’s ride height device and aerodynamics updates, as well as some stellar riding.

There’s no question the Martin situation helped. While his teammate’s relationship with Aprilia was fraught, the 26-year-old dug deep and thrived in his new, unexpected role as factory leader. No one questioned his commitment as he led races capably at Assen, the Sachsenring, Brno, Austria and Hungary, as well as winning the British GP.

He loves racing Down Under, too. Bezzecchi was fastest at the end of his first day there on a MotoGP machine in 2022, a year in which he finished just off the podium. Expect another podium push on this visit.

4 – Pedro Acosta

Acosta’s transformation across 2025 has been remarkable. And not just on the bike. The 21-year-old wanted the watching world to know he’d rather be anywhere but at KTM during the opening months of the season. From the cheeky chappy we saw throughout 2024, he resembled more of a sulky teenager up until early June.

In his defence, there was little on track that suggested he’d challenge Marc Marquez aboard his RC16. The bike was woefully tough on its tyres in the early races. And its front end always appeared on the very limit, evidenced by Acosta crashing out of two of the season’s first three races.

Yet some solid work from KTM engineers behind the scenes, plus an acceptance from the rider that he must make best with the tools at his disposal, has turned his season around. He scored three podiums from four during midseason and has started to live up to the hype.

Acosta’s experience in Australia is limited. He was second on debut at the Island in Moto2 in 2022. There’s been little to celebrate since, as he crashed on the sighting lap of the 2023 Moto2 race and withdrew from last year’s outing due to a crash in the Sprint. Still, he finished second in Indonesia’s recent main race.

5 – Pecco Bagnaia

Without question this has been Bagnaia’s annus horribilis. Tipped by many (including this brainiac at AMCN) to push Marc hardest in 2025, the Italian has been a shadow of his former self. Has it really been so gruelling to adapt to Ducati’s GP25 as the three-time world champion has regularly stressed? Or is it more the effect of sharing a garage with the grid’s most talented – and charismatic – rider?

Bagnaia spent a chunk of the summer break rewatching old races he had won as a reminder of his talents – an admission his self-confidence has taken a battering. There have been times when simply being on the bike has been something of an ordeal as he was bullied in races in Italy, the Netherlands and Austria, countries he ruled over in the previous three years.

Yet Phillip Island could well offer up a touch of optimism. There’s a precedent, with the Italian featuring on the podium here in each of the past three years. Either way, Pecco desperately needs to rebuild some of his confidence toward the end of the season. Otherwise, he’ll already be entering 2026 on the back foot.

THE OUTSIDERS

1 – Fabio Quartararo

MotoGP’s only French champion hasn’t done a lot of smiling lately. Quartararo languishes ninth on the points table and has been frustrated by familiar failings, mainly his Yamaha M1’s lack of grip and outright power. Not even the rushing of the new V4 to racing competition at Misano seemed to please him.

And it’s understandable why. Quartararo wants to win. And not in 2027. He’s well aware that, even if he races the V4 next year, it won’t be anywhere near capable of challenging Ducati. 2025 marks the third straight season that he hasn’t fought for anything significant in the championship. And, at 26 years of age, he’s arguably in his prime.

Certain performances this year – poles in Spain, France and the UK for instance, heroic top sixes in Germany, Czechia and Barcelona, a podium at Jerez and that oh-so-nearly win at Silverstone – have reminded us of his ability. On a Ducati, there’s no question he’d be capable of giving Marc Marquez a run.

His Phillip Island record is patchy, however. He was never higher than 10th here in Moto2 and Moto3. And he’s never finished higher than 12th in MotoGP, even if he showed devastating speed as a rookie back in 2019.

On paper, the track should play to his bike’s strengths. And with some top names missing, a podium challenge isn’t out of the question.

2 – Fabio Di Giannantonio

How to judge Di Giannantonio’s season until now? Two podiums from the first 14 rounds are unquestionably a disappointing return for a rider on the latest factory Ducati.

But he has his reasons. The Italian was immediately on the back foot from the moment he broke a left collarbone when pulling a wheelie on day one of 2025 testing. From there, he’s come close to establishing a base setting, only to lose his way later on.

His results have been up and down. And nowhere close to Alex Marquez on the same bike. The lows were low – think Brno and Austria. But the highs included a fine weekend in Austin and a home podium at Mugello when he fought with – and beat – circuit specialist Bagnaia late on. It’s difficult to tell which way this will go.

At least Di Giannantonio loves Phillip Island. He took his maiden MotoGP podium here in 2023 when he was 0.4sec off the win. He was fourth here a year ago with just one working shoulder as well, which points to a podium charge at the very least this time around.

3 – Joan Mir

For a lot of recent history, the Majorcan was a punchline to most MotoGP jokes. Once the category’s next big thing, Mir entered a personal hell in 2022 that showed few signs of abating. Over three seasons he either failed to finish or missed 35 races entirely through injury – 58 per cent of the championship between 2022-24.

Yet since the European season started this year, he’s reminded us of the talents that carried him to a dominant Moto3 title in 2017 and a MotoGP championship in 2020. In his hands, Honda’s much improved RC213V has been a weapon that’s continually improving.

Still prone to a race crash, Mir has at least challenged the top six more often than not when he’s finished. And further improvements to the bike’s chassis, swingarm, electronics and engine over the summer break saw him back, fighting at the front for his first podium in 1421 days at Motegi.

Mir likes Phillip Island, too. He wrapped up his Moto3 title here in victorious fashion, came within millimetres of winning in his Moto2 debut, and almost scored a podium as a MotoGP rookie. Results in recent years were terrible. But Mir – and Honda – are a different proposition in 2025. After three years in the wilderness, recent races have showed he is getting back to somewhere near his best.

THE HOME HERO

Jack Miller

Miller’s adaptation to Yamaha’s M1 was a lot quicker than anyone was expecting. He was comfortably beating Fabio Quartararo, a veteran of the bike of six years, in Thailand and Austin. And he had the right tyre combination to win at Le Mans but for a fall.

From the Italian GP in June it’s been more of a slog. But, to be fair, he hasn’t been alone. The form of all of Yamaha’s chargers fell away during the European summer, when it became clear the factory will be doing everything to bring its new V4 motorcycle into competition in 2026.

The 29-year-old enjoyed some of his best races in front of a home crowd in years gone by. His win in 2014 when in the midst of the Moto3 title fight still ranks among his best, while leading the MotoGP race in 2017 and scoring a premier class podium in 2019 were also highlights. He also had the speed to win in 2022 but for Alex Marquez taking him out.