The moment of truth – four factories, four futures and one make-or-break super test
February’s early test in Malaysia – a three-day Shakedown for test riders and Yamaha, plus another three for all – is always crucial. But in 2026 it feels even more so. The three days of running at the Sepang International Circuit will not only offer a first glimpse at what is to come in the season ahead; it could define who ends up where the following year.
The silly season that will likely unfold in the coming months could be one of the wildest in history. While both Marc Marquez and Ducati are intent on maintaining what has been a winning relationship beyond this year and into 2027 and 2028, four of the grid’s big names need to either convince or be convinced from day one of preseason.
Those names include Ducati’s Pecco Bagnaia, Yamaha’s Fabio Quartararo, KTM’s Pedro Acosta and Aprilia’s Jorge Martin, a band of riders with eight world championships between them – four of them in the premier class.
For Quartararo and Acosta, Sepang is where their respective manufacturers need to prove they have taken quantum leaps forward after their riding genius papered over the cracks of both the M1 and RC16 through last season.
In the Frenchman’s case, he explicitly stated February’s test is where he will decide whether he stays at Yamaha beyond this year (if he hasn’t done so already). “I need to feel that it’s a winning bike,” he said of what it’ll take to continue with the Iwata factory. “(One which can) fight for the top five in every single session, every single Sprint, and every single GP.”
Meanwhile there have already been murmurs Acosta has long since given up trust in KTM’s abilities to provide him with a winning bike.
Bagnaia and Martin are in a different situation. Although the Italian won back-to-back championships in 2022 and 2023 and the Spaniard triumphed in 2024, they both endured horror seasons last time out. Both need to prove they’re capable of matching their teammates from the get-go, with Martin desperate for drama-free running after completing just five rounds from 22 across an injury-ravaged 2025.
The three days of tests will also be a first chance to assess Marquez’s recovery since he cracked a bone at the base of his right shoulder blade. The nine-time champ has been adamant the recovery is straightforward. Yet in November he was unable to lift his championship trophy aloft due to injury. He’ll be keen to assuage any fears.
The current MotoGP champion will be joined on track by the current WorldSBK champion for the first time. In the most hotly anticipated MotoGP switch by a World Superbike rider since Ben Spies in 2011, Toprak Razgatlioglu left his new Pramac Yamaha team impressed by both his attitude and adaptability in November’s outings at Aragon and Valencia. He’ll be eager to get closer to Quartararo than the 0.7sec he managed after a day’s riding at Valencia.
Sepang gives a chance to gauge Ducati’s efforts over the European winter. There will surely be concerns that in the final five races of last year a rival bike appeared stronger than the all-conquering Desmosedici for the first time since the early months of 2022, even if its star rider was missing. Having minimised risk with machine development from 2024 to 2025, General Manager Gigi Dall’Igna has vowed to press forward ahead of this campaign. “Probably next year we have to take some risks more than at the beginning of this year,” he told AMCN back in November.
Despite winning three of the past four races, Aprilia showed it had no plans to stand still at November’s Valencia test. A heavily revised seat unit was one of several items tested by factory riders Marco Bezzecchi and Martin.
KTM must show up with a more forgiving bike that is easier on its rear tyre than last year’s model – Acosta’s talent demands it. The Spaniard will also be searching for more mechanical grip from the rear of the bike.
Honda will also not stand still. Although test riders Aleix Espargaro and Takaaki Nakagami have been testing the brand’s new 850 machine ahead of 2027, their 2026 package has also been addressed. If HRC can maintain last year’s momentum, there’s no reason to exclude Joan Mir from victory contention at some point this season.
Without question, the concerns of these four brands pales in comparison to Yamaha. Tasked with proving its speed to lead rider Quartararo, it has also had to ramp up development of its new V4 after retiring its inline-four M1 in November. The new machine underwhelmed in its three wildcard appearances to date when test rider Augusto Fernandez was using the base of its inline-four bike. Quartararo was 0.5sec off the top at Valencia. Yamaha engineers would be delighted to maintain that gap at Sepang.
